IMF Executive Board Concludes 2014 Article IV Consultation with the Netherlands

December 05, 2014 3:25 PM
On December 3, 2014, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1 with the Netherlands.
 
The Dutch economy continues to improve, supported by exports, rising house prices, and improving sentiment.
 
Exports are rising on expanding global trade, but consumption remains sluggish as indebted households continue to save. The external current account surplus now exceeds 10 percent of GDP, led by an improving trade balance. Labor slack and the large output gap have pushed down core inflation, raising real interest rates. Following a decline of 27 percent in real terms, housing prices have gradually increased this year, halting the decline in household wealth. Household leverage, however, remains high, concentrated mainly among younger cohorts.
 
On this basis, growth is expected to reach 0.8 percent this year before rising gradually to 1.2 percent in 2015, supported by rising exports and a modest recovery in housing prices. Investment is projected to remain subdued due to weak domestic demand. The risks to the outlook are on the downside. Near term risks stem from the euro area weakness and geopolitical spillovers, while medium-term growth prospects are overshadowed by the large household debt. Lower energy prices or a faster pickup in housing prices could lift growth.
 
Executive Board Assessment
 
Executive Directors welcomed the continued economic recovery and the pickup in exports and house prices. Directors noted nevertheless that consumption is still sluggish, held down by high household indebtedness and weak incomes, while inflation is still low. In light of these developments and the elevated current account surplus, accommodative macroeconomic policies would be important to boost domestic demand and growth, while also facilitating external rebalancing. Directors called on the authorities to build on recent progress to ensure orderly deleveraging of households, reform the tax and pension systems, and advance broader structural reforms to improve the housing and labor markets, productivity, and potential growth.
 
Directors emphasized that further repair of household balance sheets is needed to sustain a more robust recovery. They recommended steps to assist the heavily indebted young borrowers, including by facilitating a reprofiling of underwater mortgages, out-of-court debt workouts, and intergenerational transfers to pay down mortgage debt. Directors noted that reducing pension contributions for younger generations could also be considered as part of a broader reform, while safeguarding the soundness of the pension system.
 
Directors considered it important that banks have strong capital and liquidity buffers to underpin the recovery. They looked forward to the completion of national arrangements for resolution and backstopping in support of euro area institutional reforms for the banking sector. Directors also saw merit in setting ambitious medium-term targets for further reducing the maximum loan-to-value ratios and mortgage interest deductibility, while carefully taking into account the stability and broader developments in the economy.
 
Directors welcomed the government’s comprehensive reform of the housing market to remove remaining distortions and restore confidence. They supported steps to deregulate the private rental market and scale back public support for the social housing sector. Continued reforms to the social housing corporations are needed to further reduce distortions in the rental market.
 
Directors broadly supported a neutral fiscal position and a focus on structural targets. They agreed that maintaining a structural balance should remain the medium-term goal, although a few saw scope for a more expansionary stance to prop up growth in the near term. Directors noted that more frequently updated trend forecasts in the context of the Netherlands’ medium-term budget framework would help strengthen predictability and responsiveness of fiscal policy to shocks. A number of Directors also supported the authorities’ commitment to maintain the fiscal rules under the Stability and Growth Pact. Directors welcomed the planned reform of the tax system, noting that consideration could be given to options to promote equity financing, reduce the labor tax wedge, and simplify the value-added tax.
 
Directors highlighted the role of small- and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) in promoting employment and growth. They called for continued efforts to enhance the availability of credit for SMEs, including by improving the quality and sharing of credit information and developing alternative financing sources.
 
 
 
       
The Netherlands: Selected Economic Indicators, 2012-15
 

Total area (2012)

41.5 thousand sq. km.

Population (Jan. 2013)

16.8 million

Population characteristics and health

Life expectancy at birth (2010)

78.1 (male), 82.2 (female)

Fertility rate (2010)

1.8 children/woman

Infant mortality rate (2011)

3 per 1,000 live births

Population per sq. km. of land area (Jan. 2013)

497 persons

National accounts 2013

(In billions of euros)

 (In percent of GDP)

Private consumption

 289.6 45.0

Public consumption

 169.3 26.3

Gross fixed investment

 117.6 18.3

Stockbuilding

 0.3 0.0

Exports of goods and nonfactor services

 533.2 82.9

Imports of goods and nonfactor services

 466.8 72.6

Nominal GDP (at market prices)

 642.9 100.0
 
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Proj. Proj.
 

National accounts (constant prices)

Gross domestic product

 -1.6 -0.7 0.8 1.2

Private consumption

 -1.4 -1.6 -0.2 0.3

Public consumption

 -1.6 -0.3 -0.6 0.0

Gross fixed investment

 -6.0 -4.0 1.6 2.6

Total domestic demand

 -2.4 -2.0 -0.1 0.7

Exports of goods and nonfactor services

 3.3 2.0 3.5 3.5

Imports of goods and nonfactor services

 2.8 0.8 2.9 3.1

Net foreign balance 1/

 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.7

Output gap (in percent of potential output)

 -3.0 -4.4 -4.4 -3.9

Prices, wages, and employment

Consumer price index (HICP)

 2.8 2.6 0.5 0.7

GDP deflator

 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.5

Hourly compensation (manufacturing)

 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5

Unit labor costs (manufacturing)

 4.1 1.6 -0.2 0.7

Employment

Unemployment rate (in percent)

 5.3 6.7 7.2 6.9

NAIRU

 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0

External trade

Merchandise balance (percent of GDP)

 6.9 7.8 8.2 8.5

Current account balance (percent of GDP)

 8.9 10.2 9.8 9.4

General government accounts (percent of GDP)

Revenue

 43.4 44.4 43.8 43.2

Expenditure

 47.2 46.7 46.2 45.3

Net lending/borrowing

 -3.7 -2.3 -2.4 -2.2

Primary balance

 -2.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6

Structural balance 2/

 -1.8 0.5 0.4 0.4

Structural primary balance 2/

 -0.1 2.1 1.9 1.9

General government gross debt

 66.5 68.6 69.3 69.8
 

Sources: Dutch official publications, IMF, IFS, and Fund staff calculations.

1/ Contribution to GDP growth.

2/ In percent of potential GDP.

1 Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

2 At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here:http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm

 
 
Source: International Monetary Fund

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